PREDICTIONS: The Vice Presidential Picks

"Veepstakes".. it's the parlour game all political junkies are playing at this time - trying to guess who the Democratic and Republican nominees will be. For the most part, those high paid pundits on TV and radio are hedging their bets - giving only a short list - at best. Since, I doubt either candidate will make their final choice for many weeks, it takes a brave person to jump ahead of these guys and boldly predict exactly what they will do before they even know it themselves. I am that brave person.

I have been trying to get into the mind of Barack Obama and John McCain to determine how they would go about choosing a running mate. What factors would they think were important, how do they make decisions, what messages are they trying to send, what electoral advantage are they jockeying to get .. all these factors went into me predicting what they nominees will do. Here goes..

I predict that Barack Obama will make a very good choice by selecting Mark Warner of Virginia as his running mate.

There will be a lot of reasons for this choice. Mark Warner is young, a former governor and from Virginia, a swing state in this election. He’s a family man with a strong Christian background. He is very smart and was a capable and popular chief executive of his state. He is respected by the activists as well as the old standard bearers of the Democratic party. He also connected well with many Republicans and Independents in his state and did well with voters in the Appalachian Mountain region where Obama will need some help. These are all excellent qualifications for Warner to be Obama's VP choice. However, the most important reason he will get the nod, in my opinion, is Barack Obama insistence on a “no drama” operation. Warner is a cool cat, very serious, smart and talented. He is post-partisan and rejects the divisive politics that Obama has been running against. His personality and his politics blend perfectly with that of Barack Obama making him the best choice as his running mate.

John McCain is an entirely different story. His campaign seems at a loss as to how to take the shine off his young, fresh opponent. Therefore, I believe, he will miscalculate and make the poor decision of choosing Bobby Jindal of Louisiana as his GOP Vice Presidential running mate.

So far in this campaign McCain seems to be trying to mimic Obama's strengths in an attempt to weaken his opponents message and image. He has adapted a new slogan “A leader we can believe in” that is a take off on the one Obama has used for over a year “Change we can believe in”. McCain has had his website redesigned to look like Obama's and he portrays himself as much of a change agent as Obama. He seems to be trying to run a "copy cat" campaign.

Keeping with this misguided strategy, McCain will make the foolish choice of Governor Bobby Jindal for his running mate. To be painfully blunt, The biggest reason McCain will make this choice is that Jindal is young (36) and dark skinned - just like Obama! I believe McCain thinks this will peel off some support from Barack. It won't. Not only is McCain's strategy to confuse the differences between the two campaigns ridiculous and doomed to failure, I can think of no voting block that would be more inclined to vote for McCain because of the inclusion of Jindal. It is a plan without a purpose (also, it would be an insult to Jindal to propel him to the VP slot under this scenario). Yes, Jindal is a governor (has been for a few months now) and a strict conservative, but just like when Bob Dole tried to go "young and right" with Jack Kemp, McCain will miss with his attempt to generate excitement with this unorthodox pick.

McCain should actually pick Mike Huckabee. You all know I’m a big fan of his, but from a strictly strategic point of view, Huckabee would be a smart choice. He is the only person I know of that can compete rhetorically with the Obama campaign (which John McCain and Jindal clearly cannot). Huckabee beat McCain in the South even after McCain was all but the presumptive nominee, and he maintains strong support in that region. McCain may feel that the South is already locked up for the GOP but I do not. Huckabee could hold the base that McCain needs to have any chance of winning in November.

Now, Huckabee has said some nutty things over the past months and years, but I’m pretty sure McCain himself will corner the market this Fall on uncomfortable sound bites. As much as I like him, as a Democrat I also fear Mike Huckabee. He is very smart, shrewd and could, with a crafty plan and his sliver tongue, find a way to score an upset in November. A long serving governor, Mike Huckabee, in my opinion, could handle the job of President if he were to have to serve.

So there you have it. It will be Obama/Warner vs. McCain/Jindal. Of course, this far in advance anything can happen and I may have to revise these picks later. Warner is currently running for Senate and would have to be convinced to drop out of that race and Jindal could (and should) take himself out of the picture to focus on the needs of his new job. But unless and until something extraordinary happens I will make this "earliest in the blogosphere" prediction of the candidates choices for running mates.

Mike Huckabee comments on Barack Obama Speech

This conservative gets it! Huck does me proud again. (excerpts)

It's Over!

The apostle Paul wrote that, "I fought the good fight; I've finished the race; and I've kept the faith." And I believe tonight that one of the things that we will be able to say is not only that we fought the good fight and finished the race; we'd like to have finished it first, but we stayed in until the race was over. But I think, more importantly, we've kept the faith. And that for me has been the most important goal of all. I'd rather lose an election than lose the principles that got me into politics in the first place. Huckabee Consession Speech

Primary Decision

Another big Tuesday today. The election could be all wrapped up for both parties by this time tomorrow. First, the Democrats..... If Barack Obama sweeps the 4 states tonight, Hillary will probably drop out and he will easily win the Democratic nomination. The toughest states for him tonight will be Texas and especially Ohio. Clinton has a lead in the polls in Ohio and Texas seems too close to call. Even if she wins both states, it will be mathematically difficult for her to catch Barack Obama, but she will have some appearance of momentum that will justify (in her supporters eyes) to keep the fight going. Unless Obama has a total meltdown over the next couple months, he should still arrive at the convention with the majority of delegates and popular vote. But Clinton is hoping that a late surge will convince the Super-delegates to support her. Not very likely, but it is her only hope at this time.

As far as the GOP goes, tonight could be the end of the road for my dark horse favorite Mike Huckabee I've been disappointed at the near media blackout of his campaign over the past two weeks. I really think that if he were given equal time, he would probably defeat John McCain. I am not in any of the states voting today so I can't say what the local press is doing as far as covering Huckabee, but I hope he has been getting heard. Much like Barack Obama, the more Mike Huckabee is seen and heard, the more popular he gets. It's really a shame that it took so long for him to break through the crowd in the public mind. I'm certain that if the primaries were starting today, Huckabee would be the nominee. But now, he faces the ultimate of uphill battles. If Huckabee wins Texas and does very well in the other contests, he is still very much in the game. (Ironically more so than Clinton because of the unhappiness among the GOP base with John McCain). Let's hope that what has been happening on the ground in the way of press coverage has been more than what is apparent from here in New York. Otherwise, it could be the end of the 2008 road for my man Mike. It will be a sad thing indeed for me - someone who has been following and cheering on Huckabee for quite a longtime. He certainly has shown the ability to pull of the big surprise, so anything is possible. But it does have to happen for him tonight.

Leave Him Alone!

If you are not familiar with the "Leave Britney Alone" video classic then check it out first. It is a young man's plea to the public to leave his hero, Britney Spears, alone. If you are familiar with it then just enjoy this parody entitled "Leave Mike Huckabee Alone". Funny stuff!

Huckabee goes for (a) Broke(red Convention)!

Mike Huckabee knows that he can still win the Republican nomination only if he forces a brokered convention. With the widespread dissastisfaction for John McCain, it could actually work! It would be a longshot - but that is Huckabees' style anyway.

My Endorsements

I have been asked by some people in Florida what I think about their primary coming up. Since my own primary in New York is very close too, I figured this would be a good time to give my endorsements. No surprises really, I have been supporting these guys the whole time but here are some reminders why. As usual, please excuse any choppiness or grammatical errors. This blog is done usually without revisions (due to time constraints) so fight your way through it and I hope you catch my drift. Maybe one day, when this is my full time job I can revise, rewrite and make everything look perfect. In the meantime read what I am quickly typing while the boss is away getting coffee.

Democrats: Barack Obama

This was always a bit of a close call for me - especially at first. I had great respect for Bill Clinton and while Hillary was never a favorite, she seems to be very smart and quite able to be President of the United States. Barack Obama lacks Washington experience and seems almost too nice for the job. However, over these few months of the campaign, I have seen two things that puts me solidly in the Obama camp. First of all, Barack is indeed smart enough and tough enough for the job. His impressive leadership abilities are apparent in the way he has created an effective national campaign in a very short period of time. Barack Obama also would bring the most change to national politics - which we desperately need. Secondly, Hillary, or "Billary" as it now seems to be the case, have shown over the past couple months a shocking disdain for the truth and common decency. The Clinton administration of the 1990's was competent and much better than what preceded and followed. However, their choice to lie, mislead and most recently introduce hateful racial undertones to the current campaign disqualifies them from my consideration. It also has sent my opinion of Bill Clinton way, way down. As someone, who loved Bill and was never a Hillary hater - I am surprised to find myself saying this but if she wins the nomination I MAY NOT even vote Democratic! Anyone who knows me understands just how much the Clintons have irked me for me to say that. They are acting like ... republicans ... in this election. In the interest of consistency I have to publicly rebuke them for that. It really is a shame.

Republicans: Mike Huckabee

Reports of Mike Huckabee's demise is premature. And I sure hope it is wrong all together. Although Huck has said some really odd things on the campaign trail, I still think he would is the best of the choices on the GOP side. To this day, he remains the only Republican that seems to understand that trickle down economics does not work for everyone and that compassion is not a dirty word. He is a breath of fresh air and, if not for a lack of money and experience in the national spotlight, would be the runaway favorite for the Republicans. I still think he has a real shot to win it all - after all he won Iowa with little money and came out of nowhere to do it. Florida can put him back in the mix and I sure hope they do.

So much to say ...

..and not nearly enough time to write it. The Democratic debate last night was really exciting. Clinton and Obama really got into it and I'll tell you it did not make Obama look good. Those debates are not his strong suit. I think Hillary may be on the verge of seizing the momentum for good. Despite her many weaknesses as a candidate she knows how to battle. On the GOP side my man Huckabee really seems to be "not ready for prime time". Some of his comments and that by his bud Chuck Norris, seem to be hurting his campaign. I thought that he would be better off to ride the wave of support rather than try to push too hard. On a positive note the chart below seems to show Huckabee (green) still very much still in the race in Florida.UPDATE 2:30PM Fred Thompson has dropped out of the race which might help Huckabee. At the very least, the epitome of movement conservatism is out of the picture and hopefully so is that poitical ideology!I watched Bloomberg all night to see the overseas stock markets. They tanked - only to rebound a little bit after the Fed announced the rate cut. It could be a very interesting day on Wall Street. My only hope in all this is that people realize that the "trickle down" economics the USA has been using since 1981 is the cause of this mess. Greed is a good fuel for a capitalistic economy but it should never been made the engine. Today we may see what kind of price we pay.

Mich. for Mitt

I have been so busy that I have not even had time to pay much attention to politics. But from what I have picked up here's what I think. Mitt Romney won Michigan last night meaning that in 3 contests 3 separate Republicans have emerged victorious. It certainly muddles the picture. I really don't have a sense that Romney will carry his success over into other primaries. Fred Thompson, my least favorite of all the candidates out there, is hoping to win in South Carolina and Rudy needs Florida. While I think Giuliani is pretty much through, I do worry that Thompson could catch fire and string together some wins. He would be the worst. He is George W. Bush with less brains, less energy, less intellectual curiosity and perhaps a stronger allegiance to the failed ideology of "movement conservatism". He could be the only person out there that could actually take us BACKWARDS from George W. Bush! Right wingers love him. I am still sticking with my call of Mike Huckabee winning it all on the GOP side, although it will be a tough road to hoe. I do think that it is almost a sure thing that Huckabee will be the VP pick if he doesn't win it all. He is just too strong in the religious base where others are weak. Same sort of thing for Obama. If Hillary should take the nomination she will almost HAVE TO have Barack as her #2. Otherwise there will be a significant segment of (new, young) Democratic voters who might stay home in November. The democrats will not risk that.

I'll write more when time permits. in the meantime check out my other website Reaching Across The Aisle, where I write with Big Daddy Jeff on political topics of interest. GO THERE NOW TO VOTE FOR WHO YOU THINK WILL WIN THE PRESIDENCY!!!

Anti-Inevitability?

I was really surprised that Hillary Clinton won the New Hampshire primary. Seems that voters may have an anti-inevitability thing going on. When Hillary seemed a sure thing - Obama surged. When in the past few days (which may go down in history as temporary "Obamamania") when Barack looked to be rolling toward the nomination, Clinton got a surge of her own. Maybe Democratic voters want to keep the candidates from getting too comfortable in their front runner status?? Fairly or unfairly, Obama was seen to be acting like he had NH in the bag, I think that hurt him with voters who waited to decide until the last minute. Also, I think that jealousy between Iowa and NH was a factor in some voters not choosing Obama. NH wants to be different than Iowa. This could have been their way of showing it. At any rate - we do have a race here folks and it could be one of the most interesting in years.

Same on the Republican side. McCain won NH as expected and now seems to be the GOP front runner. Romney, by placing second again, must win Michigan to remain viable. (So much for the so-called focus group the other night) Mike Huckabee got 11% - about what expected and a very respectable third place. He's still in a very strong position for the upcoming contests and should be considered a co-front runner with McCain. Giuliani barely beat Ron Paul and seems to be placing all his hope on Florida. Personally, I think he is through - but we'll see. Fred Thompson got only 1% - disappointing even by the low expectations he went into NH. Unless he gets a victory before Super Tuesday (2/5) he will be forced to exit the race he so reluctantly entered in the first place.

Check out Reaching Across The Aisle, where my blog buddy Big Daddy Jeff shares his thoughts. He also talks about the inevitability factor.

Sunday Roundup

I'm kind of looking at today as the first day of 2008. I have been anxious to turn the page on 2007 and last week seemed to be a transition time between the old year and the new one. I think I have pretty much closed the book on '07 and am charging full steam ahead with '08.

I didn't write much about my Christmas trip to Florida but it was really great! I got to see almost everyone in my family (except you David) and we all had a blast. I got to play bartender and really enjoyed that. Everyone was in good health and good humor and I was really reminded that no matter what - that's what's really important. As I move ahead in 2008, I will frequently look back to Christmas and remember how lucky I am to be part of a great and loving family. I can't wait to visit again.

The double feature debate last night was fun to watch. Briefly -- I think that Romney is pretty much done. He looked terrible last night - seemed so desperate and unhinged. Thompson actually seemed to have a pulse and while his ideas are outdated - he at least seemed to be fully awake for the first time this campaign season. Huckabee, I have to say, kicked ass. People I was watching with were stunned to see a Republican talk the way he did. While it may not move him quite into 1st place in New Hampshire on Tuesday, his performance last night will enhance the surge he is already experiencing. McCain was good, Guliani OK and Ron Paul as entertaining as always. Overall -- big win for Huckabee, mild plus for McCain and Thompson and big loss for Mitt. (FOXnews has another Republican debate tonight. They are pro Rudy and Thompson and strongly anti-Huckabee. It'll be interesting to see how theses pseudo-journalists question the candidates.)

The Democratic debate was actually less interesting than the Republicans and the candidates looked as tired as I felt. I think Obama helped himself while poor Hillary, a victim of bad timing(She should have run in '04) , seemed to just dig herself into a deeper hole. Overall -- Obama helped himself and kept momentum going on his rise, Edwards confused me even more by backing up Barack and Clinton did her best but could not reverse the trend against her.

SUNDAY READING
Why Obama and Huckabee are doing so well
Are all right wing pundits mentally ill?
Roger Clemens uses Larry Craig defense? - didn't know what was getting stuck in his ass
The NFL in decline - now goes as far as to REWARD cheating
This party would shock even me

Who could have imagined?

Of course I have to remind you that it was ME who predicted this many months ago.

Yes, I did see this coming and yes I love to brag. I admit that it is very satisfying but also kind of frustrating that I am not doing this for a living while people like William Kristol, who has been consistently wrong in his hypothesizing, gets a job at the NY Times. While the USA is shaking off the nightmare that has been Red America - it seems it will take time before those who got our nation in this mess to stop being rewarded and those of us who warned against it in the first place to see some benefits. We'll see. I'm not holding my breath.

As far as the results goes there are a few factors in the Huckabee and Obama wins that should be taken into account for the future. Huckabee first. In Iowa there are a lot of Evangelical Christians who supported his candidacy and the percentage of those type of people is lower in New Hampshire and across the country. It's important to remember that Pat Robertson won Iowa in 1988 only to fade out of the presidential race once it moved on. Huckabee still might suffer a similar fate.

Having said that - the Iowa polling that I have seen (and I have not studied it in great detail yet) seems to show that Huckabee did pretty well outside of this group too. This could be good news for him heading into the other primaries. Also encouraging is the fact that Huckabee is NOT a "movement conservative" yet still got the votes of what has been called the "Christian Right". This shows me that they recognize that "movement conservatism" is a failure and that their Christian values are not based on what William Kristol, George W. Bush or Rush Limbaugh says, but might actually be based on the words and deeds of Jesus Christ. Imagine that. I also think that many if not most Republicans have come to realize that "Movement Conservative" politicians and policies are simply a fraud. This realization, if truly present in the GOP nationally, should keep Huckabee at the top of the GOP pack. I think Huckabee will continue to do quite well with republicans looking to break away from the movement while his opposition will be divided between the remaining "movement conservatives" who will go for Thompson, military hawks who will trend toward McCain and much of the rest for Romney or Guiliani. To me that still equals Huckabee as the eventual GOP nominee.

As far as Obama goes I would warn against over optimism based on the fact that so much of the vote for him was brand new, young voters. The caucus system in Iowa allows anyone who is 18 to come in and vote. Since you have to be registered to vote in other states, it could be more of a challenge for Obama to get those young people to the polls. Still, his campaign is very organized and has the momentum. Barack Obama is the very definition of "change" and the American people certainly want that. So I maintain my prediction that he will win the Democratic party's nomination and the Presidency.

It was interesting watching the returns last night. The general feeling among the old pros is that it was a historic night for American politics. They also seemed shocked at the results. Maybe because I was so busy and tired last night, but it was not a big exciting evening at all. I was certainly happy, because I think it's good for America and also I love to be proven right at anything, but I was not surprised. I genuinely believe that a candidates race is not a big factor anymore and that traditional "conservatism" has been plainly debunked to all but a few remaining true believers. That, combined with the communication skills and policy ideas of Huckabee and Obama, made last nights results not just unsurprising but inevitable.

Wednesday Roundup

It's been a busy week for work, news, sports and weather. Let's do a little roundup.

We had our "office party" last night. If there are any employers out there reading this let me tell you something ... giving free alcohol to your staff is a GREAT way to boost morale. Going into the party everyone was complaining about their jobs and co-workers - by the end of the night it was one big love fest. I really enjoyed it a lot. It's nice to see your co-workers in a social environment and I know they saw another side of me too (the "real" me?) I was not the somewhat grumpy somewhat disgruntled guy they see everyday. Also it seems true that those who work hard also play hard. I am a hard worker.

I just love this piece about Roger Clemens*. It's so nice to have company in my long running distaste for the guy. He now denies everything, but I don't believe him. He may not make it to the Hall of Fame and even if he does he will certainly not have the opportunity (I hope) to disgrace the New York Yankee uniform again. I do appreciate Andy Pettite's admission, explanation and apology. I'll bet dollars to doughnuts that Roger Clemens* encourage Pettite to do it. Pick your friends carefully people.

The FSU Athletic program is in trouble again with reports that 20 or more football players were caught cheating on exams and will miss three games starting with the upcoming bowl game. What a mess. With a new Athletic Director now and new coach soon (I hope!) perhaps things will get straightened out.

It's been cold, windy and icy. I don't mind the cold but could do without the wind and ice.

My GOP fav Mike Huckabee is still surging making my prediction look better and better. He could certainly still implode (especially since he seems to be getting carried away with things. He should take a cue from Ron Paul and ride the wave - not try to force it). McCain seems to be doing better but I was impressed with Mitt Romney on Meet the Press this past Sunday. As I thought, he is a reasonable and smart man. He may regain his lead too. It will be a great race to watch! On the Democratic side, many pundits are saying that John Edwards is on the upswing. He's not really my cup of tea, but true liberals really prefer him so who knows. I still think that Obama will prevail.

Another young solider for "movement conservatives" has set the ground work for their dream of a permanent Republican majority. Kevin Martin push through regulations that would allow right wing propagandists to buy up and control even more media. I know I sound like a broken record but these "movement conservatives" are nothing less than fascists determined to turn America into one party state. (I continue to struggle with what to call this. They call themselves conservatives - but they are not. Also, there are many people who ARE conservative that are as frightened of this wave as I am. So I call them "movement conservatives" because they want to force their views on America by hook or by crook. They don't see politics as a way of helping people - they see it as a means to direct money, power and influence only to those who choose to join the movement. They are educated ( sometimes exclusively) by, young republican groups, talk radio and through other right wing media. These "movement conservatives" do not look at the world and come up with ways to make it better - they are determine to push through their ideas at any cost, to destroy anyone who disagrees and deny reality anytime (which is often) they need to. They have fooled a lot of good people - good conservative people - for a long time. These "movement conservatives" will never stop trying to rape this nation. Consolidating the media so that the truth is harder to find is an important part of the plan. I hope to God that we can look back one day and be thankful that they were stopped before it was to late. But that day has not come yet. BTW I would equally fearful of any liberal "movement". I'm not a movement guy. Movements, in politics, are dangerous.)

I travel to Miami on Sunday for Christmas and I am so excited. I love to go home and see everyone. I'll be in the air during the Patriots*/Dolphins game which is good. I would be too stressed out if I tried to watch it. On a different note ... a couple of weeks ago, after years of good service, my beard trimmer broke. I have always trimmed my beard pretty close and pretty often. When I wanted to "go wild" I would move the trimming guide from 2 to 3. How daring! Even at 3 the beard was quite short. Well, for a number of reasons, I did not buy a new trimmer yet. After all this time my beard is bigger than it has ever been. And guess what... nobody noticed. Truth be told, no one ever notices the changes in my beard. It's dumbfounding! I have had a beard, been completely shaved, had various shapes of goatees and now let it go wild and no one ever sees the difference! It's not that I have a wispy beard at all- I have a nice full beard (inherited from my Dad who has an awesome beard). During the past week I have asked people at work "notice anything different about my beard" - no one has. So I am going to let it go for another week or so because I notice and I think it looks good - especially for the winter. Walking around the City with my hat, scarf and beard I imagine myself a bit of a mountain man braving the elements in cold and windy New York. I have quite an imagination.

Forward Thinking Political Analyst For Immediate Hire

It is nice to see that after years of studying politics and providing analysis, all my hard work is finally being rewarded. Oh, not financially of course (at least not yet). But the surge of Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama, which has confounded traditional experts, is actually playing out just as I predicted. Of course, there is a long way to go and anything can happen, but I am personally pleased (and maybe even a little bit relieved) that all the unpaid effort I have put in over the years has not been a waste of time. At least I am gaining an understanding of things.

Now that Mike Huckabee is getting closer the position of Republican front runner, he is becoming a huge target by political opponents. A couple of issues from his past have resurfaced recently. First, the fact that a man he helped release from jail, raped and murdered again. It's a tragic case, and one that he had more responsibility for than he first admitted. However, it really doesn't sound like something, in my opinion, that SHOULD stop his Presidential prospects. I remember the Wille Horton ads and thought it was dishonest for Bush I to suggest that it showed a flaw in the character of Michael Dukaksis. The same goes for Huck. Yes, it was a tragic mistake. But I am convinced that he has learned from it. What else can you ask of someone?

The next issue is with AIDS. In 1992 Huck said that AIDS patients should be quarantined and that funding should be held back because of the moral issues involved with this disease. He now says that he was wrong and excuses himself by saying that knowledge of the disease was much less then than it is now. This doesn't really make sense to me. After all, this was 1992 -not 1982! There was more than enough information out there for Huckabee to have avoided such ridiculous comments. Clearly he was pandering to the GOP base at the time without doing his research. Bad Huck!

It is important to remember that even though Huckabee is the best in his group, he is still a Republican. I'm sorry to say that modern Republicanism is grounded either in (intentionally disseminated) misinformation or a complete ignorance of facts. Huckabee certainly was no exception in the 1990's. He bought into all that "movement conservative" denial of reality stuff. But, here is the difference I see with Mike Huckabee - rather than stay set in his ways and continue to ignore reality, Huckabee educated himself and adjusted his positions and policies (including AIDS) based on what he learned. For a party which seems hell bent of forcing the world to adjust to their backward policy positions, it is nice to see at least one candidate in the GOP actually adjust his positions based on the facts on the ground. For a modern Republican that is groundbreaking stuff and I am hopeful that voters in their primary will continue to see the need to purge their party of ideologues and keep Huckabee on top for their party's nomination. It would do this country a lot of good to have someone from the GOP that, if not completely grounded in reality, at least is familiar with the concept.

As far as Obama is concerned I remain optimistic. He represents change and I just don't see the supporters of Edwards, Richardson or any of the other going to anyone but Obama. Barack should do well in Iowa and New Hampshire (probably win both) and the 2nd tier candidates will begin falling off. This will only strengthen Obama and should send him on his way to the nomination.

Enough of all that. Lets return to my favorite hobby of self congratulatory back patting. (I have learned that if you wait for others to notice you are doing a good job - you will probably never get what you deserve. Sad but true.) Below is an opinion piece by NY Times columnist Frank Rich. He is one of the best in the business and has penned a piece today that echos what I have been saying for months now. He is as right now as I was when I said it months ago. (P.S. Yes, this is all a thinly disguised attempt for anyone out there who might want to hire a political analyst and commentator that is often is well ahead of the curve. Contact me by e mail - I am available for immediate employment!)

Here's some of Rich's column:
COULD 2008 actually end up being a showdown between the author of “The Audacity of Hope” and the new Man from Hope, Ark.? It sounds preposterous, but Washington’s shock over Mike Huckabee’s sudden rise in the polls — he “came from nowhere,” Robert Novak huffed last week — makes you wonder. Having failed to anticipate so much else, including the Barack Obama polling surge of days earlier, the press pack has proved an unreliable guide to election 2008. What the Beltway calls unthinkable today keeps turning out to be front-page news tomorrow.

What really may be going on here is a mirror image of the phenomenon that has upended Hillary Clinton’s “inevitability” among Democrats. Like Senator Obama, Mr. Huckabee is the youngest in his party’s field. (At 52, he’s also younger than every Democratic contender except Mr. Obama, who is 46.) Both men have a history of speaking across party and racial lines. Both men possess that rarest of commodities in American public life: wit. Most important, both men aspire (not always successfully) to avoid the hyper-partisanship of the Clinton-Bush era.

The fact to remember about Mr. Huckabee’s polling spike is that it occurred just after the G.O.P. YouTube debate on CNN, where Mr. Romney and Rudy Giuliani vied to spray the most spittle at illegal immigrants. Congressman Tom Tancredo of Colorado, the fringe candidate whose most recent ads accuse the invading hordes of “pushing drugs, raping kids, destroying lives,” accurately accused his opponents of trying to “out-Tancredo Tancredo.”

Next to this mean-spiritedness, Mr. Huckabee’s tone leapt off the screen. Attacked by Mr. Romney for supporting an Arkansas program aiding the children of illegal immigrants, he replied, “In all due respect, we’re a better country than to punish children for what their parents did.” It was a winning moment, politically as well as morally. And a no-brainer at that. Given that Mr. Tancredo polls at 4 percent among Iowan Republicans and zero nationally, it’s hard to see why Rudy-Romney thought it was smart to try to out-Tancredo Tancredo.

The real reason for Mr. Huckabee’s ascendance may be that his message is simply more uplifting — and, in the ethical rather than theological sense, more Christian — than that of rivals whose main calling cards of fear, torture and nativism have become more strident with every debate. The fresh-faced politics of joy may be trumping the five-o’clock-shadow of Nixonian gloom and paranoia favored by the entire G.O.P. field with the sometime exception of John McCain.

Tuesday's Random Thoughts

Let me share some thoughts that have been running around my head but never quite made it on the blog.

I'm thinking of having some people over for Thanksgiving but I know I don't want to cook all day. Basically, I want the unrealistic scenario of me sitting in my chair, watching my TV, eating my food, drinking my beer and if other people want to come by and hang out - fine! So I thought maybe I could order some food and let me, Sarah and the guests enjoy it without me having to be the chef. Well I looked up FreshDirect, a supermarket specializing in delivery, and behold - they do have full meals for the Holiday! Unfortunately their complete Thanksgiving dinner is .... $249.99! So I think I'll just make some baked ziti and if I have people over, they can bring their own food (and sit anywhere but in MY chair).

I'm getting the feeling that the political mood of the country is shifting so dramatically that Rudy Guliani and Hillary Clinton will NOT be the nominees of their party. I like Ron Paul, but some of his ideas are too way out there for me. He will do well in New Hampshire but I believe (my GOP favorite) Mike Huckabee will eventually be the Republican nominee. On the other side of the aisle I like Chris Dodd - but why does he end almost every sentence with the word "here"!?! Listen - you'll notice. It is really bizarre. I'd be surprise if a drinking game hasn't sprung up from this. I think (my 1st choice) Barack Obama will get the Democratic nomination. I am a little wary of these predictions because both my favorites NEVER win and I feel I might be wishing more than thinking. We'll see if it is Huckabee vs. Obama in the general election.

There is a very popular phrase "It is what it is" going around that I just hate. Sure, that phrase has been around forever but it seems to be the hip saying right now. Unfortunately, anytime it is said it is because something sucks and we are all expected to just live with it. I hate it when things sucks, I hate it when people shrug and say "oh well" and I hate it when people say "it is what it is" every time those circumstances occur.

I think that "texting" is one of the best things to come out of the mobile phone revolution. It quicker and more convenient that a telephone call. You can read them at your convenience and it is a great way of exchanging information or pleasantries without being bogged down talking to someone about unrelated stuff. You can read and type in public without disturbing other people and you can even text yourself directions or reminders and refer to the messages at the appropriate time. Texting is great and one of the pleasant surprises of this electronic age. If you text and want to text with me, let me know. Many phone plans have free texting so why not get in on the fun.

The weather here is getting very cool and I just love it. It's invigorating, refreshing and so much better than the sticky nastiness of New York summers. First snow flurries should be here at anytime and you can bet that I will report it here on MQAblog.

Enjoy the day!

Huckabee sees support on the left

I have been reading and occasionally submitting to the liberal (and now famous) blog DailyKos for quite a while. It's a very diverse, very crowded website where just about anyone can write just about anything. Most of it is pretty thoughtful and it all leans, to various degrees, to the left. Someone wrote an opinion piece about conservative Republican Mike Huckabee on Tuesday that really caught my eye. It started out as a warning to Democrats about Huckabee's politics but ended almost convincing the writer and many commenter's that Mike Huckabee might actually make a pretty good President. As I will always remind you, I have been saying this for quite a while now. While none of us has become a "Democrat for Huckabee", I think we've all opened up to the possibility that he is a candidate that could really lead this country in the right direction. Read the story for sure and then check out a cross section of the comments. Read a couple, scroll down a while and read a couple more. You can almost see some light bulbs going off. Mike Huckabee may or may not become President, but he may have found a message that can be used a guide to closing the divide that now exists between Red and Blue America.