LICKED! Obama runs the table (and "Joe the Plumber" proves it!)

Wednesday night was the final Presidential debate and it seems that it was another Obama victory. While McCain was more forceful and energetic in this encounter, he also came across as angry almost throughout the contest.

The biggest story of the debate, I guess, is "Joe the Plumber". He was used as an example by McCain throughout the debate. (read: "Don't pay attention to the policies favoring the rich that me and Palin support - look at Joe!! He's convinced he would be hurt under an Obama Presidency!!!!") I'm glad McCain did this.

McCain was trying to show Americans a poor, hard working businessman who would be punished by the mean old Obama economic plans. Apparently, he vetted the honesty of "Joe's" claims as little as he did his VP choice. Like much, if not all, of Conservative narratives, The story of "Joe the Plumber" it's an untrue myth. (These people rely so much on myths, symbolism and stuff that's simply made up, it it's astounding).

Turns out (no surprise) Joe is NOT a registered plumber, he does not make $250,000 and he is a registered Republican, not an undecided voter. Also he is NOT going to buy his boss' business (as he dishonestly said to Obama during their discussion) and even if he did he would not suffer additional taxes because his bosses business is not worth a quarter million dollars. Finally, Joe (that's NOT even his real first name for goodness sake) hates taxes so much, he won't even pay his "low" taxes now under a Republican administration.

So while the fictionalized story of "Joe the Plumber" seems to be the next shiny distraction the Republicans are using to try to persuade (trick?) their voters (again?), turns outs it is almost completely untrue. I know, a real shocker.

My Presidential Debate Analysis

I think it was clear win for Barack Obama. He had a real good night and John McCain had a bad night. In fact, there were times where I really felt kind of sorry for McCain. Gone is the John McCain I liked so much in the 2000 Presidential race. McCain now looks like he should be serving his last months in office, not seeking his first. Time and his complete sell out to the Bush Administration over the past eight years has taken a terrible toll. George Bush ruined it all for John McCain. In more ways than one. No wonder he's seething.

Think about it. In 2000 John McCain was pretty close to being a real Maverick. He railed against the Religious Right who pull the important strings in the GOP, he argued against then Governor Bush's doomed to fail economic plans and he condemned the lie and hate filled campaign that Bush was raging against him. But in 2000 he lost. George W. Bush took away his best chance of ever becoming President.

But it gets worse. In a calculation I still don't understand, John McCain decided to cross sides and join his enemies. He snuggled up to Bush for the general elections in 2000 and 2004. He embraced Bush's policies over 90% of the time. McCain even hired the smear merchants that slimed him for his own campaign in 2008. McCain appeased the fundamentalist with the Sarah Palin pick and got down in the gutter as bad as he got just 8 years earlier. This calculation seems to have failed. So this time, by joining up with George Bush and his people, McCain is having his second and final attempt at the White House going down the drain.

I just wonder how it must feel for him to hear himself now being tied to the failures of the Bush Presidency. He must truly hate the man. Not only did Bush take the nomination from him in 2000, not only did he convince McCain to back bad policies, but he also lead McCain into giving up his maverick status and even his honor this year. George Bush has just about ruined this country and caused immeasurable hardships on millions of people across the world. But John McCain might just have the unique distinction of being hurt by Bush more than anyone else still alive. Now, being (correctly) labeled as "McSame" (as Bush) must be galling beyond belief.

Back to the debate. Of course there were the idiosyncrasies we have all gotten used to. John McCain winking and blinking and saying "my friend" seemingly without control. Barack stuttering and using the word 'notion" a lot. And I would be remiss if I didn't point out that John Mcain's upper lip never seems to move when he speaks. The oddest phrase I heard was "nailing jello to the wall" uttered by McCain. Huh? Is that a common expression? Why would anyone try to nail jello to the wall anyway? Also, McCain blundered greatly when he suggested that people could drive to Arizona to get health care. Tennessee, where the debate was held, is a long way from Arizona and I doubt anyone in the audience saw that as a good idea.

Finally there is the "that one" comment that is big news today. I grimaced as soon as I heard John McCain say that. It sounded racist to me, as in "that (black person)". Now, I do NOT believe that McCain meant it that way or is a racist at all. In fact, I assumed it was an expression from the olden days that he trotted out. But, wow what a mistake to say it! He is catching a ton of flack about it today. Rightly so. Even if it was an honest mistake, a slip of the tongue, an old expression lost in translation here in the present, McCain should not had said it.

As for the aesthetics of the debate, the audience, for most of the event, looked like frightened hostages. They came across as people who were forced to dress in fancy clothes against their will and told not to make a sound. They loosened up a bit as the debate went on but overall looked very uncomfortable. Tom Brokaw, as I expected asked weak questions. Why would he give multiple choice, yes or no questions to complicated issues? Why insist that the candidates prioritize certain issues? And why constantly complain about the time. None of it contributed to the substance of the discussion and Brokaw looked silly and small doing that.

Overall, it was the best of both worlds for me. Barack Obama really looked on his game. He was informed, articulate, energetic and enthusiastic. McCain was pretty much the exact opposite of all that. He was bad even for John McCain. I think it is definitely advantage Obama now. There is one more debate to go (right here in New York) and now less than a month until election day. I hope that Obama can continue the momentum he has going right now.

Debate Tonight: 9PM

Tonight's Presidential debate is in the "Town Hall" format which would seem to favor John McCain. I will be very interested to see if he continues the attacks that he and Starburst have stepped up in the past few days. I will be watching closely to see how the audience reacts if he does. Typically, voters don't like to see smears up close (unless they are Reds) and McCain could be hurt if he goes to far in front of the audience of undecideds. Also, McCain will have to look at Obama this time. It will be fascinating to see how much that pains him.

Obama has a delicate balancing act to pull off tonight. He will have to stay above the fray and address the REAL needs of the voters while trying to simultaneously fight back against the attacks as to not look weak. He has to maintain his advantage of "feeling the pain" of voters without coming across like John Kerry, unwilling or unable to fight back. Not an easy task.

Tom Brokaw is the moderator. I've never been a big fan of his. On 'Meet The Press' he has been very unimpressive and some strong arguments have been made that he leans in favor of McCain. I think that he is professional enough to not let that come through, but if his Sunday morning performances are any indication, he will ask unimaginative and sometimes uninformed questions. This debate is so important that I just hope he doesn't ask stupid questions and that he is as balanced as possible. Also, there will be questions from the audience and the internet. Those are always interesting and often unpredictable.

John McCain needs to do something huge to make up the lead that Barack Obama is building. As we've seen in this campaign, nothing is too dirty or too superficial. Maybe McCain will call his opponent Osama or come out with a Playboy bunny on each arm - who knows? But it will be interesting, and probably and little sad, t0 see what he tries.

In Defense of Rich Lowry

The other day I mentioned the post by influential Conservative writer Rich Lowry about how watching Sarah Palin the other night gave him great ... um ..... self satisfaction. Well Boonman has been a lone voice in defending him. You have to read it!

The VP Debate

You betcha, I watched and I'm am sure glad I did dont'cha know.

I thought Sarah Palin met the very low expectations she had coming into the contest. She was very able in repeating her lines and coming across as an attractive small town beauty queen turned GOP saviour. Those who like her undoubtedly loved the debate last night.

However, those of us who were looking for substance continue to be frightened of the prospect of Sarah Palin in the White House. She answered questions she wasn't even asked, ignored the topic of discussion and regurgitated the same old Republican talking points I have been hearing my whole life. If anyone watching the debate still buys into Republican ideology , they certainly heard it repeated dutifully by the woman from Alaska. But those who see the need for real change in this country probably did not fall for the "cutsie" factor and certainly did not want to consider the prospect of living through more of the same old Bushonomics and foreign policy ideas. Also, how she could gush about Ronald Reagan over and over while trying to ridicule Biden for criticizing our current President was beyond ridiculous.

So. I agree with the polls that Biden won the debate. Some may once again be fooled by Palin's attractiveness and sunny demeanor, but I think most people are ready to move beyond the superficiality that has defined the modern Republican movement. No more old movies stars or fake cowboys and certainly no "hockey moms". What we need is serious thoughtful people bringing about true reform to this country. Sarah Palin came no where near crossing that critical threshold.

UPDATE 10:00PM

I just wanted to pat myself on the back once again (twice really)for being proved correct - well ahead of the curve.

First, remember here and here where I expressed the concern that Palin was a megalomaniac who wanted to use the office of the Vice Presidency to further her extreme agenda? Well, here is some proof of my correctness. Remember, it is now vogue among Conservatives to say the elections serve as their ONLY check on their power. They believe, once elected, they can do whatever they please. Palin, from her comments last night, does plan on using the position of VP in very powerful and frightening ways.

Second, I have received some grief today about calling Conservatives out for their superficiality. I argued that Palin's good looks and charm have blinded some on the right into not seeing her incompetence and (see above) megalomaniac tendencies. Well, here's a little gift from one of the most influential Conservative writers in America. Rich Lowry wrote this today ... read it and go ewwwwww.

October 2

Today is my Mom's Birthday. I will be flying down to Miami today to wish her a Happy Birthday in person.

Today is the 30th anniversary of the Bucky Dent Home Run in Boston. Things sure have changed in the baseball world.

With the Yankees out of the playoffs this year my sentimental favorites for this post season are 1. Chicago Cubs, 2. Tampa Bay Rays and 3. Chicago White Sox. Hope that doesn't jinx them.

The big VP debate tonight. I expect Sarah Palin to do better than expected. I just hope people don't mistake someone having 90 good minutes for someone being qualified for the office of Vice President. If the American people were charmed into loving her once, they might be fooled again. (It's not just Americans who fall into the trap either) If she doesn't win the debate tonight, the GOP's ticket chances are over. It's a crucial night tonight and I hope that the truth shines through and superficiality takes a back seat.

Michael Bloomberg is set to announce that he will seek a third term. As I have already mentioned, I support this and still believe that term limits are a bad idea. We'll see what the voters of NYC have to say.

Well I'm off to the airport. Time to take off my shoes for no good reason and now the newest ritual - sitting on the tarmac prior to take off for an hour or more. Still, it is more relaxing than most of my days at work and I get to read and listen to my iPod all day. Yayy! Best of all, I get to go home for a couple days. I'm off.....

Post-Debate Analysis

It was great watching the debate last night and it's amazing to think that the election is only 6 weeks away. McCain actually looked alive and alert in his performance last night which might stop his free fall in the polls. But only temporarily. Obama was very strong throughout the debate and I think he crossed that invisible "commander in chief" threshold. I believe that the poll I am showing here is the most important sign of an Obama victory last night. If so many undecided voters have a new, positive view of him, that bodes very well for his election prospects. The fact that so few got a less favorable opinion is surprising, and also very encouraging.

In the days to come there will be a lot of post debate spin to come. The GOP is masterful of creating a new reality and count on them to push home the point that John McCain really won. Unless they succeed in convincing Americans that they did not see what they think they saw, (the Republicans are very good at that), then Barack Obama should be able to use last night's strong performance to ride a wave into the White House.

The Great Debate

Tonight at 9PM

Bail Out! McCain tries to Cancel Friday's Debate

Oh my. Even I'm embarrassed for John McCain as he tries this latest act of desperation.
UPDATE: Perhaps this is the real disaster McCain is trying to prevent.

And the winner is...

I really enjoyed watching the debate last night. It made me understand why I am more inclined to support Democratic politicians than Republicans. The Democrats were thoughtful and practical and seemed to have a serious discussion rather than a contest of who could look tougher or more like Ronald Reagan. I think that last night we saw a debate on substance while Tuesday it will be more a contest on style.

I think Barack Obama won the debate with Joe Biden coming in second. Hillary did well, she is so smart, but I still find her presentation slightly annoying. After 4 or 8 years that slight annoyance has the real potential of becoming huge liability in a presidency. I was impressed with Obama because he really tried to be a uniter and he really showed more depth than he has to this point. He also seemed to control the tempo of the debate jumping in when appropriate and successfully cutting off interrupters. In fact, one of the most impressive surprises of the debate was how ALL the other candidates shut up when Obama simply waved his hand. He has a presence that takes over a room. Much like Bill Clinton in 1992, Obama seems to have that magical mix of intelligence and compassion while also being the alpha male in the room. I'll call it "the right stuff". I had no clear cut favorite in the Democratic primary, but after last night I am all but committed to Barack Obama.

As an example of the "alpha male" thing, the chart above shows how much air time each candidate had during the debate last night. Obama won THAT contest as well - even getting more airtime than Wolf Blitzer. Now that's impressive.

Debate times 7pm

Tonight (Sunday) at 7pm the Democrats will gather to debate on CNN. The Republicans hold their debate on Tuesday - same bat time, same bat channel.

Republican Debate Analysis

The debate last night was pretty interesting. I thought that most of the candidates did pretty well for themselves. Of course, they talked of Ronald Reagan in weirdly supernatural terms and style over substance predictably held the day for the Republicans. But besides that foolishness, most of the candidates articulated their positions well and came across as more thoughtful and intelligent than the current resident of the white house.

For some reason Chris Matthews chose to “attack” only 1 candidate - my favorite Mike Huckabee. Matthews read a quote from one of his interviews and tried to get Huckabee to admit he was attacking Mitt Romney. Huckabee seemed confused by Matthews accusations and tried to assure him that it was a general comment not a direct attack. That provided him a good deal of time that, despite being put on the defensive, I think he handled quite well.

Mitt Romney surprised me the most. He is a great speaker and can explain his thoughts in a clear and simple way without being elemental. If Republicans are looking for another Reagan than Romney, seemed to me to fit the bill most closely. Guliani did better than I expected and came across as a feasible commander in chief. McCain was very energetic which sometimes made him look a bit spastic. At one point he growled that he would follow Osama bin Laden to the gates of Hell - then burst out grinning at his own hyperbole. It was a strange moment.

The rest of the candidates seemed to fade into the woodwork with Jim Gilmore being especially bland. I also noticed, looking a the full slate of GOP candidates, that they were all old white men in dark suits. Interesting that in 2007, THAT is more noticeable than the rainbow of race and gender we see on the Democratic side.

Tonight - The Republicans

Tonight is the 1st Republican debate and of course I will be watching. They are holding it at the Ronald Reagan Library demonstrating the hero worshipping tendencies that I have always thought was a symptom of their propensity to “follow” and oversimplify everything. To them Reagan was not a mortal man - he was God like. Reagan was everything good. Anything positive that has happened in the past 30 years is because of Reagan. Every Republican candidate wants to be the next Reagan and all have talked about him on the stump the way a school girl goes on about the jock. It’s kind of gay and will be the most sickening part of the debate tonight. Look for everyone (the press included) to gush over what a great man Ronald Reagan was. No mention of his race baiting to get elected or the widespread corruption inside his administration after he was elected is likely to be made.

I have not talked much about the Republican field so here it goes.

Mike Huckabee - I have been meaning to write about him for some time now. He is the only Republican in the race that I would consider voting for. He is from (of all places) Hope, Arkansas. He’s the former Governor of that state, a man of the cloth and very conservative. The reason I like him is that he really understands that it is wrong to force his belief system on other people or the country as a whole. He actually believes that Christians should help the poor and take care of the less fortunate. He is smart and open minded. I tell any conservative I talk to that they would be wise to support Huckabee because (with the possible exception of Fred Thompson) he is the only Republican who could garner enough crossover votes to win the general election.

Rudy Guliani - He cleaned up New York City but the nation as a whole is nothing like the Big Apple. While he and the GOP have really worked on building up his 9-11 heroics, I always thought he did a good - not great job. His tenure as mayor was filled with corruption and abuse of power and I always like to remind folks that Guliani wanted to cancel the Mayoral elections after 9-11 and keep himself in charge for an unprecedented (and unelected) third term. His personal life also is a bit troublesome with affairs, divorces and dealings with people like Bernard Kerik. To me Rudy seems like an authoritarian leader prone to abusing power. I think we’ve had enough of that type of behavior in the White House for a while.

Mitt Romney - His fundraising abilities may assure him a VP slot but he has a long way to go to get the Presidential nomination. He has flip flopped so dramatically it is hard to know what he would do as President. I fear he would over-pander to the GOP base and without any internal political compass he could really get us in trouble.

John McCain - Well, well. Back in 2000 I was a big McCain fan. He talked straight about how George W. Bush was a dirty campaigner and would make a poor President. Fast forward 7 years and he has embraced not only George W. Bush, but the very political operatives that smeared him back in 2000. When McCain was a POW he signed and read an anti-American confession. I can, of course, forgive that. But doing more or less the same thing with George W. Bush makes me wonder if this straight talker is also a fast folder - and would end up being a very weak President.

Ron Paul I like a lot of what this guys says. He is fiercely independent and has been (fruitlessly) warning his own party of the dangers of the neo-cons and the radicals that have taken over the GOP. I hope he calls out the other candidates that have supported this President and his neo-con pals.

Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter - these are single issue candidate who are likely to blame everything from the Iraq war to their hemorrhoids on Bill Clinton and the democrats. For your everyday Republican voter this simple message will excite. However, it won’t be enough to become serious candidates.

Sam Brownback, Tommy Thompson and Jim Gilmore - Brownback is a traditional conservative who seemed to have a lot going for him. For some reason though, he hasn’t caught on with Republican voters. Thompson is a decent guy but really very uninspiring - Gilmore even less so.