Primary Decision

Another big Tuesday today. The election could be all wrapped up for both parties by this time tomorrow. First, the Democrats..... If Barack Obama sweeps the 4 states tonight, Hillary will probably drop out and he will easily win the Democratic nomination. The toughest states for him tonight will be Texas and especially Ohio. Clinton has a lead in the polls in Ohio and Texas seems too close to call. Even if she wins both states, it will be mathematically difficult for her to catch Barack Obama, but she will have some appearance of momentum that will justify (in her supporters eyes) to keep the fight going. Unless Obama has a total meltdown over the next couple months, he should still arrive at the convention with the majority of delegates and popular vote. But Clinton is hoping that a late surge will convince the Super-delegates to support her. Not very likely, but it is her only hope at this time.

As far as the GOP goes, tonight could be the end of the road for my dark horse favorite Mike Huckabee I've been disappointed at the near media blackout of his campaign over the past two weeks. I really think that if he were given equal time, he would probably defeat John McCain. I am not in any of the states voting today so I can't say what the local press is doing as far as covering Huckabee, but I hope he has been getting heard. Much like Barack Obama, the more Mike Huckabee is seen and heard, the more popular he gets. It's really a shame that it took so long for him to break through the crowd in the public mind. I'm certain that if the primaries were starting today, Huckabee would be the nominee. But now, he faces the ultimate of uphill battles. If Huckabee wins Texas and does very well in the other contests, he is still very much in the game. (Ironically more so than Clinton because of the unhappiness among the GOP base with John McCain). Let's hope that what has been happening on the ground in the way of press coverage has been more than what is apparent from here in New York. Otherwise, it could be the end of the 2008 road for my man Mike. It will be a sad thing indeed for me - someone who has been following and cheering on Huckabee for quite a longtime. He certainly has shown the ability to pull of the big surprise, so anything is possible. But it does have to happen for him tonight.