Who could have imagined?

Of course I have to remind you that it was ME who predicted this many months ago.

Yes, I did see this coming and yes I love to brag. I admit that it is very satisfying but also kind of frustrating that I am not doing this for a living while people like William Kristol, who has been consistently wrong in his hypothesizing, gets a job at the NY Times. While the USA is shaking off the nightmare that has been Red America - it seems it will take time before those who got our nation in this mess to stop being rewarded and those of us who warned against it in the first place to see some benefits. We'll see. I'm not holding my breath.

As far as the results goes there are a few factors in the Huckabee and Obama wins that should be taken into account for the future. Huckabee first. In Iowa there are a lot of Evangelical Christians who supported his candidacy and the percentage of those type of people is lower in New Hampshire and across the country. It's important to remember that Pat Robertson won Iowa in 1988 only to fade out of the presidential race once it moved on. Huckabee still might suffer a similar fate.

Having said that - the Iowa polling that I have seen (and I have not studied it in great detail yet) seems to show that Huckabee did pretty well outside of this group too. This could be good news for him heading into the other primaries. Also encouraging is the fact that Huckabee is NOT a "movement conservative" yet still got the votes of what has been called the "Christian Right". This shows me that they recognize that "movement conservatism" is a failure and that their Christian values are not based on what William Kristol, George W. Bush or Rush Limbaugh says, but might actually be based on the words and deeds of Jesus Christ. Imagine that. I also think that many if not most Republicans have come to realize that "Movement Conservative" politicians and policies are simply a fraud. This realization, if truly present in the GOP nationally, should keep Huckabee at the top of the GOP pack. I think Huckabee will continue to do quite well with republicans looking to break away from the movement while his opposition will be divided between the remaining "movement conservatives" who will go for Thompson, military hawks who will trend toward McCain and much of the rest for Romney or Guiliani. To me that still equals Huckabee as the eventual GOP nominee.

As far as Obama goes I would warn against over optimism based on the fact that so much of the vote for him was brand new, young voters. The caucus system in Iowa allows anyone who is 18 to come in and vote. Since you have to be registered to vote in other states, it could be more of a challenge for Obama to get those young people to the polls. Still, his campaign is very organized and has the momentum. Barack Obama is the very definition of "change" and the American people certainly want that. So I maintain my prediction that he will win the Democratic party's nomination and the Presidency.

It was interesting watching the returns last night. The general feeling among the old pros is that it was a historic night for American politics. They also seemed shocked at the results. Maybe because I was so busy and tired last night, but it was not a big exciting evening at all. I was certainly happy, because I think it's good for America and also I love to be proven right at anything, but I was not surprised. I genuinely believe that a candidates race is not a big factor anymore and that traditional "conservatism" has been plainly debunked to all but a few remaining true believers. That, combined with the communication skills and policy ideas of Huckabee and Obama, made last nights results not just unsurprising but inevitable.